Of asteroids and climate change

Consider a large asteroid approaching earth, with most scientists predicting an impact any moment now, and most predicting permanent global warming, elevated sea level and ocean acidification. It seems likely that there will be increased famine and war over the next decades. What can we do? Nothing. It's too late. Fortunately, if you're rich, you'll just turn up the air-conditioning, you'll move your beach-front cottage to a higher elevation, you'll make sure that you have enough food for yourself, stock up on antibiotics and get an extra shotgun, in case things get out of control. Whew, that was close!

Consider a much larger asteroid, with a 90% chance of hitting in forty years. If this hits, the consequences will be much more serious, and irreversible, at least on the thousand-year scale. What should we do? Some people suggest that we should urgently build some kind of missile system to divert the asteroid: we already have a lot of the engineering in place, but it looks as though this project will be very expensive. A few people say that we can't be certain that it's really an asteroid anyway: didn't I read in the newspaper that there was a big controversy about this?  Let's do nothing.

Others say that our telescopes aren't accurate enough and our computers aren't powerful enough to calculate the likelihood it will hit since it's so far away, so let's wait a few decades in order to be sure.  But the engineers warn them that if we wait it will take an increasingly larger and more expensive missile to do the job, or we may run out of time.

Some people like the idea of the missile, but think it's way too expensive, especially now, while we're in the throes of a major recession. In any case, since the effect is on the whole world, why should only the rich people pay for this, while the poor folks get a free ride?  If we wait long enough we'll probably persuade them to chip in their fair share. Looking at the world at large, what about the three billion people living at the "bottom of the pyramid" on $2.50 per day? But no, for them, forty years ahead is irrelevant: they're too busy planning three days in advance, because they're not sure if their food is going to last until the end of the week.

What about the folks approaching retirement, or actually retired? It seems like they may have to make some disruptive and expensive changes to their lifestyle. They have worked hard all their lives in order to get where they are; why should they put themselves out for the sake of something that seems implausible, when it's really future generations who will get the benefit? On the other end of the spectrum, the kids and young adults are more acutely aware of the risks to them; unfortunately, they don't have a lot of money to spend on building this missile.

Then there's the role of faith. Some ministers are saying that this is just scheme contrived by the atheists or political radicals; in any case, God will take care of his chosen people. Let's not forget the other major kind of faith: faith in our ability to invent and build an incredibly ingenious and cheap solution in the future. Surely, we've come up with innumerable technological solutions in the past, so let's give out some grants to the universities, wait a while, and keep our eyes open for the inevitablebreakthrough.

What about the little guy: what can one person do to help build this missile—wouldn't he/she have to be an engineer? But no, it looks as though the missile is going to have to be so big that everyone will be needed to pitch in. Futile, say the sociologists and psychologists, you'll never be able to galvanize a whole population. Surely our politicians are paid to take the lead here, and do what's needed for our population? Too bad that most Americans aren't sufficiently educated to understand or even imagine what an asteroid would look like.  How are your average politicians going to get re-elected if they ignore the will of the people?

Boy. Am I mistaken, or does that asteroid look bigger than it did yesterday?